Justin Jefferson went in the first round. Right now he's WR19. So is he the buy-low of the year? We ran the numbers.
The short answer
Yes, buy. You're getting a top-six workload at a WR19 price.
How we measured
We pulled PPR fantasy points and target share for every wide receiver with four or more games through Week 7 of the 2026 season (147 receivers), from nflverse play-by-play data.
1. The points look ugly
Jefferson is averaging 14.4 PPR points a game, 19th among 147 qualifying receivers, right next to Tre Tucker (14.3).
2. The targets don't
In his four full games (Weeks 1, 2, 5 and 7) he has drawn 39%, 32%, 24% and 29% of Minnesota's targets: 31% overall. Measured against every receiver's season-long share, that would rank sixth.
3. The dud was the ankle
His one bad game, two targets against Tampa Bay in Week 3, came when he left with an ankle sprain. He missed Week 4. The targets are there. The quarterback isn't.
The rule
Volume is sticky. Quarterback play swings. Offer a WR2 and see who blinks.
The full sheet: all 147 wide receivers through Week 7
# | Player | Team | G | PPR/g | Non-TD PPR/g | TDs | Target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 7 | 28.0 | 21.2 | 8 | 36.9% |
2 | Puka Nacua | LA | 5 | 22.7 | 19.1 | 3 | 31.6% |
3 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 7 | 22.2 | 17.1 | 6 | 30.9% |
4 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 6 | 21.4 | 16.4 | 5 | 31.8% |
5 | Zay Flowers | BAL | 6 | 20.4 | 17.4 | 3 | 31.1% |
6 | Christian Watson | GB | 7 | 18.5 | 13.4 | 6 | 21.8% |
7 | Chris Olave | NO | 7 | 17.8 | 16.1 | 2 | 27.0% |
8 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | 4 | 17.2 | 14.2 | 2 | 32.3% |
9 | Malik Nabers | NYG | 7 | 17.2 | 15.5 | 2 | 29.0% |
10 | Tee Higgins | CIN | 6 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 2 | 22.8% |
11 | Davante Adams | LA | 6 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 4 | 20.9% |
12 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | 6 | 16.2 | 11.2 | 5 | 22.7% |
13 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | 6 | 16.2 | 14.2 | 2 | 25.7% |
14 | Matthew Golden | GB | 7 | 15.8 | 13.2 | 3 | 25.9% |
15 | Drake London | ATL | 7 | 15.4 | 14.6 | 1 | 29.2% |
16 | Parker Washington | JAX | 6 | 15.3 | 11.3 | 4 | 25.6% |
17 | Nico Collins | HOU | 5 | 15.2 | 11.6 | 3 | 22.5% |
18 | Mike Evans | SF | 6 | 14.8 | 11.8 | 3 | 23.3% |
19 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | 5 | 14.4 | 10.8 | 3 | 26.4% |
20 | Tre Tucker | LV | 7 | 14.3 | 10.8 | 4 | 18.2% |
21 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 7 | 14.2 | 11.6 | 3 | 25.9% |
22 | Jalen Coker | CAR | 5 | 14.0 | 11.6 | 2 | 23.0% |
23 | Jameson Williams | DET | 6 | 13.9 | 9.9 | 4 | 17.5% |
24 | George Pickens | DAL | 7 | 13.9 | 12.2 | 2 | 22.1% |
25 | Stefon Diggs | WAS | 5 | 13.9 | 9.1 | 4 | 23.4% |
26 | Luther Burden III | CHI | 7 | 13.9 | 12.1 | 2 | 21.0% |
27 | Devaughn Vele | NO | 7 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3 | 18.8% |
28 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF | 5 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 3 | 14.3% |
29 | Emeka Egbuka | TB | 6 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 3 | 25.6% |
30 | Michael Wilson | ARI | 7 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 1 | 24.4% |
31 | Tyquan Thornton | KC | 4 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 2 | 12.9% |
32 | Carnell Tate | TEN | 7 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 1 | 27.0% |
33 | Denzel Boston | CLE | 7 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 3 | 20.1% |
34 | DK Metcalf | PIT | 7 | 10.9 | 10.1 | 1 | 22.8% |
35 | Keon Coleman | BUF | 6 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 3 | 14.5% |
36 | Keenan Allen | IND | 6 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 1 | 21.2% |
37 | Jakobi Meyers | JAX | 6 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 2 | 15.4% |
38 | Germie Bernard | PIT | 6 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 1 | 17.5% |
39 | Romeo Doubs | NE | 6 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3 | 13.3% |
40 | Jaylin Noel | HOU | 7 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 2 | 10.0% |
41 | Malik Washington | MIA | 6 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 0 | 25.7% |
42 | DeMario Douglas | NE | 7 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3 | 16.2% |
43 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | 5 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 1 | 18.1% |
44 | Khalil Shakir | BUF | 6 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 1 | 19.6% |
45 | Jaylen Waddle | DEN | 7 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 1 | 23.4% |
46 | DJ Moore | BUF | 4 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 1 | 18.4% |
47 | Ryan Flournoy | DAL | 7 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 1 | 15.1% |
48 | KC Concepcion | CLE | 7 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0 | 21.8% |
49 | Mack Hollins | NE | 4 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0 | 16.7% |
50 | Roman Wilson | PIT | 5 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 2 | 14.1% |
51 | Dontayvion Wicks | PHI | 6 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 1 | 17.8% |
52 | Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN | 7 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 2 | 21.2% |
53 | Xavier Worthy | KC | 6 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 1 | 19.6% |
54 | Rome Odunze | CHI | 7 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 0 | 16.6% |
55 | Josh Downs | IND | 7 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 0 | 20.4% |
56 | Kendrick Bourne | ARI | 6 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 0 | 15.6% |
57 | Kalif Raymond | CHI | 7 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 1 | 14.4% |
58 | Pat Bryant | DEN | 4 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 1 | 10.0% |
59 | Ladd McConkey | LAC | 5 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 1 | 12.4% |
60 | Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | 7 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 1 | 17.6% |
61 | Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | 7 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 0 | 19.9% |
62 | Jordan Addison | MIN | 5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 1 | 20.3% |
63 | Tre Harris | LAC | 5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0 | 18.0% |
64 | Antonio Williams | WAS | 6 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 1 | 13.8% |
65 | Treylon Burks | WAS | 5 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2 | 11.4% |
66 | Rashod Bateman | BAL | 7 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 1 | 13.1% |
67 | Makai Lemon | PHI | 7 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 1 | 16.9% |
68 | Darius Cooper | PHI | 7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 4 | 8.4% |
69 | Josh Palmer | BUF | 4 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 2 | 9.5% |
70 | Jahan Dotson | ATL | 7 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2 | 13.3% |
71 | Malachi Fields | NYG | 7 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 1 | 13.3% |
72 | Cooper Kupp | SEA | 7 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 1 | 11.7% |
73 | Rashid Shaheed | SEA | 7 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 1 | 14.4% |
74 | Ted Hurst III | TB | 6 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 1 | 12.7% |
75 | Cody White | LV | 7 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 3 | 7.4% |
76 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | HOU | 6 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 2 | 10.0% |
77 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | 7 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 1 | 16.7% |
78 | Jerry Jeudy | CLE | 6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 13.3% |
79 | Josh Cameron | JAX | 6 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 2 | 6.9% |
80 | John Metchie III | CAR | 5 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1 | 9.4% |
81 | Tez Johnson | TB | 7 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1 | 8.4% |
82 | Laquon Treadwell | IND | 7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0 | 11.2% |
83 | Quentin Johnston | LAC | 5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0 | 14.9% |
84 | Isaac TeSlaa | DET | 6 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0 | 9.1% |
85 | Kayshon Boutte | HOU | 7 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0 | 10.1% |
86 | Isaiah Williams | NYJ | 7 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 1 | 7.6% |
87 | Konata Mumpfield | LA | 6 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1 | 8.2% |
88 | Elic Ayomanor | TEN | 7 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1 | 11.2% |
89 | Efton Chism III | NE | 6 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1 | 8.1% |
90 | Dohnte Meyers | CIN | 6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 0 | 8.4% |
91 | Tory Horton | SEA | 4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1 | 6.6% |
92 | Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | 6 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1 | 11.3% |
93 | Kyle Williams | NE | 7 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1 | 5.9% |
94 | Chris Bell | MIA | 6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 0 | 12.7% |
95 | Devontez Walker | BAL | 5 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1 | 6.3% |
96 | Darnell Mooney | NYG | 7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 0 | 9.5% |
97 | Bryce Lance | NO | 7 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1 | 8.6% |
98 | Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | 5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0 | 8.3% |
99 | Jalen Nailor | LV | 5 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 0 | 11.9% |
100 | Brandin Cooks | SF | 4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 1 | 6.4% |
101 | Brycen Tremayne | CAR | 6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0 | 4.2% |
102 | Kevin Coleman Jr. | MIA | 5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 1 | 14.8% |
103 | Zachariah Branch | ATL | 7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0 | 6.2% |
104 | Dyami Brown | WAS | 6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0 | 8.4% |
105 | Jared Wayne | HOU | 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0 | 8.2% |
106 | Calvin Ridley | TEN | 5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0 | 7.9% |
107 | Jalen Royals | KC | 6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 6.1% |
108 | KaVontae Turpin | DAL | 6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 3.0% |
109 | Deion Burks | IND | 5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0 | 4.3% |
110 | Jalen Brooks | ARI | 6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0 | 6.6% |
111 | Charlie Jones | NYG | 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0 | 1.7% |
112 | Skyy Moore | GB | 5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0 | 7.3% |
113 | Troy Franklin | DEN | 6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 5.9% |
114 | Myles Price | MIN | 6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 4.2% |
115 | Cyrus Allen | KC | 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0 | 5.2% |
116 | Jahdae Walker | CHI | 4 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1 | 1.6% |
117 | Tai Felton | MIN | 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0 | 6.4% |
118 | Barion Brown | NO | 6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0 | 1.9% |
119 | Jauan Jennings | MIN | 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0 | 6.3% |
120 | Zavion Thomas | CHI | 6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0 | 2.4% |
121 | Chimere Dike | TEN | 7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0 | 3.1% |
122 | Jacob Cowing | SF | 7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0 | 4.5% |
123 | Bo Melton | GB | 7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0 | 4.1% |
124 | Jonathan Mingo | DAL | 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0 | 4.3% |
125 | LaJohntay Wester | BAL | 7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0 | 2.6% |
126 | Dareke Young | LV | 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0 | 1.5% |
127 | Jaylin Lane | WAS | 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0 | 1.7% |
128 | Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | 6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0 | 6.8% |
129 | David Moore | CAR | 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0 | 2.8% |
130 | J. Michael Sturdivant | GB | 6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0 | 1.5% |
131 | Jordan Whittington | LA | 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0 | 1.9% |
132 | Chris Blair | ATL | 6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0 | 2.1% |
133 | Malik Benson | LV | 7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 3.9% |
134 | Derius Davis | LAC | 6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 1.8% |
135 | Kameron Johnson | TB | 7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0 | 1.1% |
136 | Braxton Berrios | NYG | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.9% |
137 | Greg Dortch | BUF | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% |
138 | Tom Kennedy | DET | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% |
139 | Devin Duvernay | ARI | 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% |
140 | Simi Fehoko | ARI | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% |
141 | Britain Covey | PHI | 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% |
142 | Tay Martin | DET | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% |
143 | Nikko Remigio | KC | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% |
144 | Malachi Corley | CLE | 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% |
145 | Kaden Wetjen | PIT | 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% |
146 | Anthony Gould | IND | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% |
147 | Alex Bachman | LA | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% |
Minimum four games. Non-TD PPR/g is points per game with touchdown points removed. Target share is the average of his weekly share of his team's targets, across every game he played (Jefferson's 26.4% includes the Tampa Bay game he left early).
Your turn: what debate should we settle next? Reply and tell me.
— Pete
Sources: nflverse (play-by-play, PPR scoring and targets through Week 7, 2026); ankle injury: Vikings.com and MPR News.